ISSUE 7(31), July 2014 |
Pages 3-7
Title
ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION
Author(s)
Rostyslav Lytvyn
Organization(s)
Lvov national university of veterinary medicine and biotechnologies named after S.Z. Gzhytskyj, Lvov, Ukraine
Key Words
Investment; Agrarian sector; Forecasting; Linear trend model; Parabolic trend model; Exponential trend model.
Abstract
Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.
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